- michael barbaro
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From The New York Times, I'm Michael Barbaro. This is "The Daily."
- [music]
- michael barbaro
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Today: U.S. intelligence officials have concluded that the Russian government is supporting two very different candidates in the 2020 presidential race. David Sanger on why Russia is rooting for Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders.
It's Wednesday, February 26.
David, tell us about these intelligence briefings.
- david sanger
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Well, the first one, and in some ways the most interesting one, is shrouded in a lot of mystery. We know that about a month ago, the F.B.I. went to Bernie Sanders.
- michael barbaro
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Mm-hmm.
- david sanger
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The F.B.I. frequently comes around to give general warnings to all the candidates, but that's not what this was all about. This was about a very specific finding. And their message was, we have reason to believe that the Russians, through their own calculus, have determined that you're their favorite candidate among the Democrats in the primary.
- michael barbaro
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Hmm.
- david sanger
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And that they may well already be intervening on your behalf.
- michael barbaro
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And David, what was Sanders's reaction, as both a senator and a presidential candidate, to this piece of information?
- david sanger
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The only reaction that we know about, Michael, is that he decided to keep it secret. He hasn't said very much about what he thought about it. He just decided to say nothing about it, which itself is a really interesting choice.
- michael barbaro
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What do you mean?
- david sanger
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Well, he said that because it was classified, and he doesn't talk about classified briefings, he just stayed silent. But there are lots of political reasons for him to stay silent as well.
- michael barbaro
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Like what?
- david sanger
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He doesn't want to appear or be portrayed by President Trump as Russia's favorite or Russia's dupe in the election. If you're Bernie Sanders and you're thinking ahead to the general election, you only want one Russian puppet to be in this election, and you want it to be Donald Trump. So he knew right away that Trump would use this as an effort to try to equalize what the Russians were doing on behalf of President Trump in 2016 —
- michael barbaro
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Gotcha.
- david sanger
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— and what we think they will be doing with what they're doing with Bernie Sanders. Because if the Russians are backing both of them, it's like the Russians are backing neither of them.
- michael barbaro
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OK, so that's intelligence briefing number one. What about the second one?
- david sanger
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Well, the second one is bigger, a lot more formal, and we know a lot more about it. It was February 13.
- archived recording (erin burnett)
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[MUSIC]: And good evening. I'm Erin Burnett. We are live from Las Vegas where, in less than an hour, our Democratic presidential town halls will begin. And we have more on that in just a moment. But first, the breaking news.
- david sanger
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And the Director of National Intelligence Office, Shelby Pierson, has the unenviable job of being the mission manager for election interference for the Director of National Intelligence, goes in to brief the House Intelligence Committee.
- michael barbaro
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Hmm.
- david sanger
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And so the first thing she says is: There is Russian interference underway. The second thing she says is: The Russians had and still have a preference for Donald Trump as president. So unlike the Sanders briefing, this one does leak.
- archived recording 1
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This is not a four-year-ago flashback, folks. This is 2020.
- archived recording 2
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Well, Democrats are rekindling an old flame — Russia collusion. Yes.
- archived recording 3
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I mean, this is so idiotic. And you notice how when they win elections, the Russians didn't do anything?
- archived recording 4
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Mm.
- archived recording 5
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So —
- david sanger
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And a few days after that leaks out, we learn about the Sanders briefing a month before. And of course, as soon as these leak, everyone's furious.
- archived recording
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And if this came out a month ago, how do you think it came out now, if you had the briefing a month ago?
- archived recording (bernie sanders)
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I'll let you guess about one day before the Iowa — Nevada caucus. Why do you think it came out? It was The Washington Post? Good friends.
- david sanger
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Sanders is furious that the news of his briefing came out just before the Nevada caucuses.
- michael barbaro
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Right.
- david sanger
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And blames, among others, corporate media. Because The Washington Post had, I think, first broken this story. President Trump is furious that it's back in the ether again that the Russians are involved in the election and behind him.
- archived recording (donald trump)
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Here we go again. Did you see it? This story. Aren't people bored?
- david sanger
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And so at a rally in Las Vegas, he says, this is all fabrication. It's all coming from the Democrats.
- archived recording (donald trump)
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I was told that was happening. I was told a week ago. They said, you know, they're trying to start a rumor. It's disinformation. That's the only thing they're good at. They're not good at anything else. They get nothing done — Do Nothing Democrats.
- david sanger
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No, actually, it was coming from his own Office of the Director of National Intelligence, all of whom work for him.
- archived recording (donald trump)
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These people are crazy!
- michael barbaro
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So regardless of how this became public — and it seems like both Sanders and Trump are very unhappy that it did become public — it is public now that Russia is supportive of both President Trump and Bernie Sanders. So how did the intelligence community come to that conclusion? What are they seeing out there?
- david sanger
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Well, we don't know exactly how they came to it, because this is wrapped up in their sources and methods — the one thing that they protect more than anything.
- michael barbaro
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Mm-hmm.
- david sanger
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We think they have humans sources inside Russia. They certainly did in 2016, a unique human source who had access to the Kremlin. They certainly have lines into Russian networks. That's what the National Security Agency does. And finally, they get to see some of the product as it shows up on Facebook or Reddit or something like that.
- michael barbaro
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Mm-hmm.
- david sanger
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And here, the differences from 2016 are really fascinating.
- michael barbaro
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Like what?
- david sanger
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Well, in 2016, you'll remember that there were Russians who were posing as Americans and putting out Facebook ads or going into Facebook posts. They got booted off for inauthentic behavior — they weren't really Americans. So what are they doing now? They're putting much of the same kind of propaganda and false charges on forums like Reddit, hoping that they will get picked up by real Facebook users, who are real Americans, and will be repeated on their posts. And of course, Facebook can't throw them off, because they're real Americans expressing their political views. They're protected by First Amendment rights. And it would be pretty unseemly if Facebook began tossing off Americans saying, oh, you heard that from a Russian bot.
- michael barbaro
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Hmm.
- david sanger
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In the Cold War, the Soviets called these people "useful idiots" because they unintentionally picked up a Russian theme, a piece of disinformation, and repeated it until it became organic.
- michael barbaro
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Right.
- david sanger
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In the election, they might call them "useful partisans," because they're going to pluck this out of the political ether, repeat it on cable television, presumably in support of Senator Sanders or President Trump, or maybe someone else who emerges.
- michael barbaro
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So David, how do you make sense of the fact that Russia is trying to help the two candidates in the race who are about as ideologically far apart as imaginable — Trump, Sanders — at the same time?
- david sanger
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Well, Michael, I've been trying to puzzle this out, because at first, it didn't seem to make any sense to me. And then, the more interviewing I did with more experts that I trust, they all said, you know, David, actually, it makes perfect sense.
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And it makes perfect sense for three reasons. So the first one is that both these candidates are at the outer extremes of their own parties. Not the far extreme, but they attract really partisan supporters. And the best way to create chaos is to have two polarized groups of political supporters going after each other.
- michael barbaro
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Mm.
- david sanger
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You know, the Trump supporters and the Sanders supporters, they don't leave a whole lot of space in the middle. And if you're the Russians, that's perfect. It's the equivalent of creating a drought in the forest, just before you toss in the match. Remember, the Russians don't go out and create the conditions. All they do is go out and exploit the conditions.
- michael barbaro
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Help me understand what the exploitation of a polarized Sanders and Trump electorate looks like.
- david sanger
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Well, you could take any of a number of issues that are hot-button social issues and use that to further divide Americans.
- archived recording (donald trump)
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We give hundreds of millions of dollars. You know what they give to us? Nothing. Nothing. They give us nothing.
- archived recording
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Criminals!
- david sanger
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You can use immigration, right? On which they differ dramatically.
- archived recording (bernie sanders)
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Day one, we will rescind all of Trump's hateful and racist immigration executive orders. [APPLAUSE]
- david sanger
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You can use Medicare for All, on which they differ dramatically. You could use the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, on which they differ dramatically. So —
- michael barbaro
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And just kind of pump up those issues on social media, on your Reddit page, and hope it gets picked up on Facebook. And just generally make Americans angry at each other over it?
- david sanger
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Have the country screaming at each other.
- archived recording 1
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Bottom line is Donald Trump is dangerous and toxic for this country.
- archived recording 2
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For many reasons, I think Bernie Sanders is a dangerous man, but the thing that I thought — I do. I mean, I think he's a very dangerous man.
- archived recording 3
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This is someone who is not stable. And I've been saying it from the beginning, and I will continue to say it until somebody looks into his mental stability.
- archived recording 4
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The socialist wing has completely taken over and is now in control, where the moderate voices no longer matter at this point in the race.
- michael barbaro
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And why is chaos good for Russia? I can tell why it's bad for us.
- david sanger
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It makes the United States look like a place that can't get its act together. It helps lead to charges of election interference and election irregularities that bring American elections down to the level of Russian elections.
- michael barbaro
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Hmm.
- david sanger
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It makes democracy look like a chaotic form of governance that can't really be trusted to make progress.
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Best of all, you're weakening the United States, keeping it consumed in some domestic furor, rather than thinking about pushing back against the Russians in Syria, or elsewhere in the Middle East, or in Crimea, or coming to the support of your allies in NATO.
- michael barbaro
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We'll be right back.
OK. So that's theory number one, which kind of seems to see both of these candidates as co-equals in the creation of a chaotic American political life.
- david sanger
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That's right.
- michael barbaro
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What is theory number two for why Russia would be rooting for both Trump and Sanders?
- david sanger
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Well, theory number two is truly cynical, Michael. It's that the Russians really do favor Trump, and they think that Bernie Sanders is the most beatable Democrat.
- michael barbaro
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Hmm.
- david sanger
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Now, they may be wrong about that. There's lots of polling that suggest he could win. But the Russians's calculus at this moment may be that if you want to keep Donald Trump in office, Bernie Sanders is the best candidate to go do that.
- michael barbaro
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Gotcha.
- david sanger
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Now, that then raises the question, why would they continue to support Trump? And I think the answer to that is that Donald Trump is the only member of the Trump administration who doesn't sign on to the anti-Russian cast of American policy.
- [music]
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Official policy is, we push back on the Russians from Ukraine to the Middle East and so forth. Donald Trump doesn't want to hear any of that.
- archived recording (donald trump)
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I think that we would have a chance to have a very good relationship with Russia and a very good chance — a very good relationship with President Putin. I would hope —
- michael barbaro
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Putin, obviously, likes that.
- david sanger
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That's right. Official policy is we continue sanctions on the Russians.
- archived recording (donald trump)
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A lot of people say having Russia — which is a power — having them inside the room is better than having them outside the room. By the way, there were numerous people during the G7 that felt that way. And we didn't take a vote or anything, but we did discuss it. My inclination is to say, yes, they should be in.
- david sanger
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Donald Trump's been talking to the French about letting Russia back into the G8, the group of eight countries, and beginning to lift sanctions. Official policy is that we keep sanctions on as long as the Russians continue to annex Crimea.
- archived recording (donald trump)
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You know, the people of Crimea, from what I've heard, would rather be with Russia than where they were. And you have to look at that also.
- david sanger
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Donald Trump's view is, why do we care about Crimea anyway? Why don't the other neighbors care about that? So they have all kinds of reasons to believe that Donald Trump in the second term would be a continuation of the Donald Trump in the first term, who wasn't going to give them a hard time about their territorial or nuclear ambitions.
- michael barbaro
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OK, that's the Trump side of this. What makes the Russians convinced that Sanders is the most beatable Democrat? Because as you said, that's not exactly what the polling suggests.
- david sanger
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It isn't what the polling suggests, and it's an interesting question why they believe that. Remember, the Russians didn't think Donald Trump was going to win early in the last presidential cycle and really only came to supporting him in an active way in the very last months of the campaign. So they may not know right now any more than we know. Why would they know?
- michael barbaro
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Mm-hmm.
- archived recording (bernie sanders)
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You know, when Fidel Castro came into office, you know what he did? He had a massive literacy program. Is that a bad thing?
- david sanger
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But they look at Bernie Sanders, and they see somebody who talks in ways that other American politicians rarely do. How many other American politicians have come out and said admiring things about Fidel Castro?
- michael barbaro
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Mm.
- archived recording (bernie sanders)
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You know what? I think teaching people to read and write is a good thing.
- david sanger
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How many other American candidates have proudly called themselves democratic socialists? So they think that all of these things make Sanders vulnerable to the charge from President Trump that Sanders is actually the Russian-loving socialist in the race.
- michael barbaro
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OK, so what is the third explanation for why Russia would support both candidates?
- david sanger
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Well, the third explanation is life is uncertain, and they could live with Bernie Sanders.
- michael barbaro
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Hmm.
- david sanger
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And why?
- archived recording (bernie sanders)
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Today, we are preparing to send soldiers to Afghanistan who were not even born on September 11, 2001.
- david sanger
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Because, like Donald Trump, he's got a real aversion to interventions around the world.
- archived recording (bernie sanders)
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We have got to stop endless wars. We have got to cut military spending.
- david sanger
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So that you can pay for Medicare for All and other social programs.
- michael barbaro
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So the thinking is that Russia would be quite happy, maybe even elated, with four more years of Donald Trump. But if they're going to have to live with a Democratic president, they're perfectly fine with Bernie Sanders.
- david sanger
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Especially because the Democrats have become the party of anti-Russia sentiment.
- michael barbaro
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Hmm.
- david sanger
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Right? It's almost a flip from what we thought about in the post-Cold War era where the Democrats were all about integrating Russia into the world community, making them part of the G8, coming up with economic packages, turning them into a European nation. Remember all that?
- michael barbaro
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Mm-hmm.
- david sanger
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You haven't heard a word of that from any of the Democrats now except Sanders. And so you're now seeing Bernie Sanders just in the past few days —
- archived recording (bernie sanders)
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And what I say to Mr. Putin — if elected president, trust me, you are not going to be interfering in American elections.
- archived recording
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Senator —
- david sanger
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— begin to try to sound a bit tougher in his international relations views, precisely because he recognizes this is a big vulnerability.
- archived recording (bernie sanders)
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Mr. Putin is a thug. He is an autocrat. He may be a friend of Donald Trump's. He's not a friend of mine. Let me tell you —
- david sanger
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So right now, we still don't have the evidence. Remember, in the 2016 election, it wasn't until 2017 — really, after Donald Trump was about to be inaugurated — that we got a sense of the scope of the Russian effort.
- michael barbaro
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Mm.
- david sanger
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What we do know is that Bernie Sanders now has a Russia problem.
- michael barbaro
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Mm.
- david sanger
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And that problem, if anything, is probably going to drive him to sound more hostile to Moscow than he naturally would be or he has been in the past.
- michael barbaro
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And how does that serve Russia?
- david sanger
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I'm not sure it does. Because once influence operations are exposed, it can drive the intended target — in this case, Bernie Sanders and his supporters — to the opposite corner.
- michael barbaro
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Mm-hmm.
- david sanger
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So you know, Donald Trump today is the last politician in America who could actually get behind lifting sanctions against Russia, because everybody would say, you're in Putin's pocket. And they run the risk of driving Bernie Sanders from the candidate who wanted to go talk to the Russians, to the candidate who could never talk to the Russians.
- michael barbaro
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Hmm.
- [music]
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Thank you, David.
- david sanger
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Thank you.
- archived recording (bernie sanders)
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This is —
- archived recording
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Mayor Buttigieg, we want to bring you into this conversation. Why would the Russians want to be working on behalf of Bernie Sanders?
- michael barbaro
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During Tuesday night's Democratic debate in South Carolina, candidates repeatedly invoked Russia's support for Trump and Sanders, with Mayor Pete Buttigieg saying that Russia favored them because they represent political extremes.
- archived recording (pete buttigieg)
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I'll tell you what the Russians want. They don't have a political party. They want chaos. And chaos is what is coming our way. I mean, look, if you think the last four years has been chaotic, divisive, toxic, exhausting, imagine spending the better part of 2020 with Bernie Sanders versus Donald Trump. Think about what that will be like for this country.
- michael barbaro
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At one point, Mike Bloomberg turned to Sanders and declared that the reason Russia supported Sanders was because its government believed that Sanders would lose to Trump.
- archived recording (michael bloomberg)
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Vladimir Putin thinks that Donald Trump should be president of the United States. And that's why Russia is helping you get elected, so you'll lose to him.
- archived recording (bernie sanders)
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Oh, Mr. Bloomberg!
- michael barbaro
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Sanders, in response, denounced Russia's efforts to meddle in the election.
- archived recording (bernie sanders)
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And let me tell Mr. Putin, who interfered in the 2016 election, trying to bring Americans against Americans — hey, Mr. Putin, if I'm president of the United States, trust me, you're not gonna interfere in any more American elections.
- michael barbaro
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For highlights and analysis of that debate, listen to this morning's episode of "The Latest." You can find it on the "Daily" Feed or by searching for "The Latest" wherever you listen. We'll be right back.
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- michael barbaro
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Here's what else you need to know today.
- archived recording (anne schuchat)
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Now, it's not so much a question of if this will happen anymore, but rather more a question of exactly when this will happen and how many people in this country will become infected.
- michael barbaro
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On Tuesday, health officials warned that the coronavirus will almost certainly begin spreading across the United States and that Americans should begin preparations now. During a news conference, Doctor Anne Schuchat of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said that an American outbreak might require a wide range of actions, from closing schools to asking employees to work from home.
- archived recording (anne schuchat)
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We will be transparent with the public about these measures and the potential that these tools will be necessary. There is literally a playbook for the use of these tools.
- michael barbaro
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As of Tuesday night, the U.S. had 57 confirmed cases of the virus, all of whom are in isolation in hospitals.
That's it for "The Daily." I'm Michael Barbaro. See you tomorrow.